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. Moreover, China's economic growth fell to 10.3% from 11.9% in the second quarter,アグ モカシン, a good fall, is expected to cool the "active control" under the government there is no reason therefore overall shift in the real estate policy. Release the third set of housing mortgage restrictions, it seems simply media hype, vaguely see also the developer to manipulate. Several major state-owned banks, only one pair of the third set of housing mortgage expressly limited. On the contrary, the government siege of the developers in the capital are still pressing harder and harder. Bank lending to developers, the line has been stopped; door financing of capital markets, but also for developers to completely shut down; trusts, private equity funded real estate projects, has also been banned, these are the government's attitude toward the real estate market and developers . As long as the global economic double dip does not happen, I do not see how much real estate policy loosening. Developers will not blink easily. Last year selling adductor,UGG ブーツ 店舗, developers "not bad money", not to mention they won a lot of high-priced land in the second half of last year. However, entering the fourth quarter of this year, the situation may have changed. In the cast overly aggressive game developers last year,UGG ブーツ 人気, is expected to begin to feel financial pressure. Those who are not state-owned parent company in the capital of secret aid to the developers, the threat of greater and greater funding strand breaks. August volume of housing has gone up, but still a far cry from the normal level, the government has no verbal weighed close hand. If the "Golden September and Silver October,UGG ブーツ 店舗," the traditional real estate sales Vaughan, the volume can not be significantly improved, some developers on the eve of the funds from far away. When adjusting the physical real estate market is generally divided into three stages: the first stage is characterized by a decline in value does not fall, and the second stage is the volume and price down, and the third stage is the weakness of the volume and price rise "Yindie" period. In the past 100 years, there are hundreds of Chinese and foreign housing market adjustment, 70% of them experienced the typical three-stage model. Of course, different countries, different periods of market adjustment, must have its unique action can adjust the length of each are not identical, national policies are changing, but still more than three-stage model coincide, because this model includes a buyer and seller of psychological changes fundamentals developers cash flow cycle change and adjustment policies and so on. China's real estate market is currently in the first phase of adjustment, the volume fell sharply, but prices basically stable. As the developer of the first half of 2009 selling hard cash, but will defer the building started to make salable listings plummeted, the primary market supply shortage, prices in 2009 to create the second half of "dry up", but also to create a developers' Rates unusual confidence. April this year, the government launched the "ten new countries," the market has injected policy uncertainty, but also broke the developers of the new disc in a seller's market monopoly and price manipulation, making money on the sidelines, turnover shrinking rapidly. However, after an unprecedented bull market seller, the market outlook is still confident to resist substantial, substantial price cuts
。何况中国经济增长由11.9%回落到第二季度的10.3%,是一个好的回落,是“主动调控”下的预期的降温,政府没有理由因此而在房地产政策上全面转向。放开第三套住房按揭限制,似乎根本就是媒体的炒作,隐约还见开发商操纵。几大国有银行中,只有一家对第三套住房按揭有明文限制。相反,政府对开发商在资金上的围剿仍在步步紧逼。银行对开发商的贷款,已全线停止,UGG ブーツ 人気;资本市场的融资之门,也对开发商彻底关闭;信托、私募基金资助地产项目近来也遭禁止,这些才是政府对房地产市场和开发商的真实态度。只要不发生全球经济二次探底,アグ モカシン,笔者看不出房地产政策会有多少松动。开发商轻易也不会眨眼睛。去年卖房大收,开发商“不差钱”,何况它们在去年下半年高价拿下大量的土地。然而进入今年四季度,情况可能有变。在去年投地游戏中过度进取的开发商,预计开始感到资金的压力。那些没有国有母公司在资金上暗中接济的开发商,资金链断裂的威胁愈来愈大。八月份住房的成交量有所回升,但是距离正常的水平仍相差甚远,政府的口头打压亦未见收手。如果“金九银十”的房地产传统销售旺市中,成交量不能大幅提升,部分开发商就离资金的大限不远了。当体质房地产市场的调整一般分为三个阶段:第一阶段的特征是量跌价不跌,第二阶段是量价齐跌,第三阶段则是量价上升乏力的“阴跌”期。在过去的100年中,中外房市有上百次的调整,其中七成经历过典型的三阶段模式。当然,不同国家、不同时期的市场调整,UGG ブーツ アウトレット,必有其独特的下行动能,调整长度各不相同,各国政策也千变万化,但仍多暗合三阶段模式,因为这个模式包含着买方与卖方的心理变化、发展商现金流的变化以及政策的调整周期等基本因素,UGG ブーツ 正規品。中国的房地产市场目前处在调整的第一阶段,成交量大幅下挫,但是房价基本稳定。由于2009年上半年开发商拼命卖房套现,而将楼宇开工押后,UGG ブーツ 正規品,令可销售房源骤减,一手市场供应不足,制造出2009年下半年的房价“干涨”,UGG ブーツ アウトレット,也制造出开发商对房价异乎寻常的信心。今年4月政府推出的“新国十条”,为市场注入了政策不确定性,也打破了卖方市场中开发商对新盘价格的垄断和操控,使得资金离场观望,成交迅速萎缩。不过,经历了空前牛市的卖方,对后市依旧信心十足,抗拒大幅、实质性地降价
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